By: Mark McCrindle
The current environment marked by persistent cost-of-living pressures, heightened geopolitical volatility, and increasing social polarisation isn’t just a temporary market condition, it’s a psychological stress test on consumers.
One of the trends we expect to see in 2026 is defined as ‘Hope Under Strain’: a state where optimism has contracted, forcing individuals to actively build resilience and agency rather than passively relying on external institutions.
For leaders across businesses, marketing, finance, understanding this pivotal shift is essential for recalibrating strategy, communications, and product design.
The collective outlook for Australia is noticeably cooling. While two in five Australians (64%) remain optimistic about the country’s future in three years, this figure represents a tangible decline from the 72% recorded just four years ago in 2021.
This decline is a direct response to tangible external threats perceived to be outside of personal control. Those include the rising cost of living, being the single most prominent concern, affecting 77% of Australians (Extremely/Very Concerned). Geopolitical Threats, emerging or growing international wars/conflicts (62%) and global uncertainty (57%) rank as significant anxieties.
Despite these overwhelming external threats, reliance on the government to build a better world is only marginally increasing, cited by 31% of Australians a reliance that is clearly strained given the overall decline in optimism.
The data confirms that the customer’s mindset is dominated by a complex interplay of personal financial insecurity and global instability.
Hope Under Strain defines the new psychological state where consumers are grappling with simultaneous, non-negotiable pressures. It forces a strategic contraction of focus.
Taking Agency Despite Uncertainty
Faced with an increasingly turbulent world, the consumer response is not one of paralysis, but of agency. This shift from passive coping to cultivating personal agency is the counter-measure to the ‘Strain.’
Just over half of Australians (55%) are hopeful about their future, and 50% strongly or somewhat agree they can navigate challenges without the loss of hope. Just under half, however, strongly/somewhat agree they have the agency to shape the future they want (47%) or see themselves having a responsibility to shape the world they want through their actions (46%).
Young People Finding a Sense of Agency
The greatest sense of hope and agency resides within the younger generations. Gen Y (31-45) is the most likely to strongly agree they have the agency to shape a positive future for themselves (55%), compared to just 37% of Baby Boomers. This represents a 1.5x multiplier in personal belief. Gen Y also leads in taking responsibility to shape the world they want (55%), compared to 35% of Baby Boomers.
This heightened sense of ownership contributes to the higher optimism seen in the younger cohort, with 73% of Gen Z (18-30) remaining optimistic about the future, contrasting sharply with just 53% of Baby Boomers.
Article supplied with thanks to McCrindle.
About the Author: McCrindle are a team of researchers and communications specialists who discover insights, and tell the story of Australians – what we do, and who we are.
Feature image: Canva
